Uncertainty beyond the data

How one theorizes uncertainty is central to how uncertainty is analysed. If uncertainty is conceptualised as incomplete knowledge, uncertainty analysis will focus on describing knowledge gaps. If uncertainty is conceptualised as the challenge of predicting the future, uncertainty analysis will focus on describing how present variables may change in the future. In this post, I argue that a theoretical understanding of uncertainty is necessary to guide decision-making, and that the analysis of uncertainty must be theoretically informed and not only solution-oriented.

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Lost in measurement

Measurements are used in policy-making to set targets, and to monitor progress towards targets. Think of CO2 emission targets, energy efficiency targets, waste recycling monitoring. When dealing with complex issues, the choice of metrics is not trivial! The issue of non-equivalence reveals that measurements may be precise, but they do not lead to univocal knowledge. As a consequence, policy objects are constituted also through the choice of metrics.